Time to take a look at next week’s quarterfinal games. With teams right on the brink of the Final Four and a chance to play in front of more than 50,00 fans, the stakes are ever so high. Here are my predictions along with players who will be “X” factors (outside of goalies and faceoff players, which is the case every week):
#1 Duke vs. Unranked Ohio State
Expect this game to be much closer than what most people think. Ohio State is playing with house money and has nothing to loose. They possess one of the best attack-midfield combinations in college lacrosse in Kevin Buchanan and Joel Dalgarno. Buchanan has 70 points as a middie…. incredible numbers. It’s well documented what Duke has on offense, so no need to go there. Stefan Schroder (Ohio State) needs to have more than 18 saves for the Buckeyes to win.
Prediction: Duke 12-9
X Factors: With Ned Crotty attracting the pole on the Duke midfield, Steve Schoeffel and Brad Ross need to initiate offense. Schoffel has been a nice surprise this season, netting three goals against Loyola on Saturday. Joe Breschi (OSU Coach) will do everything in his power to stop Danowski, Greer, and Quinzani. The Duke midfield needs to be heard from. Ohio State will need production out of its third and fourth scorers, juniors Jeff Ryan and Peet Poillon. Poillon had a big day against Cornell in the opening round, netting the hat trick. Expect Nick O’Hara to match-up on Buchanan and McDevitt on Dalgarno, which would force secondary scorers to pick up the slack.
#2 Virginia vs. #7 Maryland
These teams split during the regular season and know each other very well. The Terps played their best game of the season when they beat UVA in March. Maryland has the advantage in the cage with Phipps and Carter. Virginia is deeper at the offensive midfield; however, Maryland possesses possibly the best defensive midfield unit in the nation, anchored by Brian Farrell and Bryn Holmes. This could very well be the best game of the weekend.
Prediction: Maryland 11-10
X Factors: Entire Terp attack. If Maryland can get strong play from its freshman trio, the Terps will be in good shape. Outside of Ken Clausen, the UVA defense has struggled at times this season. He can only guard one player. For UVA, Garrett Billings had a short-stick on him during the prior meeting and made Maryland pay, scoring four goals. Similar production is needed from Virginia’s third option on attack.
#3 Syracuse vs., #6 Notre Dame
Notre Dame barely escaped the first round, but in their defense, they were playing one of the hottest teams in the nation in Colgate. Notre Dame will need to play their best game of the season to defeat the Orange, who will have the crowd advantage as the game will be played in Ithaca (about an hour drive south from Syracuse). Notre Dame has not played a team that possesses six scorers on the field at the same time. Mike Leveille’s play making ability, and Steven Brooks stretching the defense with his outside shot will be too much for the Fighting Irish defense to handle. This game features two of the best faceoff specialists in the nation. Notre Dame’s Taylor Glagett destroyed Colgate’s Chris Eck on Sunday, which is no small feat. Danny Brennan has played at a similar level this season and holds the keys to an Orange run at the title.
Prediction: SU 13-8
X Factors: SU’s Pat Perritt has the potential to be one of the top midfield dodgers in college lacrosse. His 2008 numbers are lower than everyone has expected (nine goals, two assists). The playoffs give players an opportunity for another season, a more important one. Expect Perritt to come up big for the Orange this May, starting with Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s Sean Dougherty will most likely have the assignment of guarding Mike Leveille. When Leveille puts up big numbers, it usually means the entire SU offense is clicking. Dougherty will have to take the Orange QB out of the mix.
#4 Johns Hopkins vs. Navy
This game will be played at Navy, and a pro Midshipmen crowd of more than 20,000 would usually be a huge factor for any team to play in front of. The problem for the Mids is that John Hopkins has won 32 games in a row over Navy, many, including the 2008 contest, with crowds of more than 15,000 people at Navy Marine Corp Stadium. When Hopkins was 3-5 on the season, I predicted they would make a run and go to the Final Four. Navy had a tremendous win over North Carolina on Saturday, however, still struggled on offense, especially at the midfield. A few of their goals were off of UNC blown clears. For Navy to be in this game, they will need a strong first half, as they do not have the firepower to come back from large deficits. If anyone can keep the Blue Jay offense in check, it is Coach Richie Meade of Navy. He consistently has his squad playing incredible six-on-six defense. In the last meeting, JHU’s Stephen Peyser was brilliant on faceoffs, with many of his draws creating instant offense.
Prediction: Hopkins 9-6
X Factors: Stephen Boyle (JHU) needs to emerge as a scorer in the tournament after a season in which he has put up below average numbers (13 goals and 14 assists). He needs to take the heat off of, Peyser, Paul Rabil, and Kevin Huntley. Attack production will make the Jays very difficult to defend, and will allow crease attackman Mike Donegar to have opportunities. Navy’s first midfield of Patrick Moran, Basil Daratsos, and Joe Lennon need to produce. Nick Marabito and Tim Paul from Navy are always steady attackmen. Four to six goals need to come from Navy’s midfield.
**Note to teams. If your team is winning with less than two minutes to go in the game, do not shoot under any circumstances. Even going up by two goals puts the ball back into play off of the faceoff. Do whatever is in your power to kill the clock. It has cost two teams a trip to the Final Four in the last 11 years (Hopkins ’97 and Maryland ’04).
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